Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Thoughts on '08: Democrats: Barack Obama

The next Democratic front-runner is a short, formerly Muslim, half-black, Senator with notably large ears: Barack Obama. I think he has a MUCH better chance of getting the Democratic nod than Hillary; however, I do NOT think he can win in '08.

I know a lot of people on the left will strongly disagree with this idea; however, I can honestly say that I do not personally know a single racist Republican. I do know a LOT of racist Democrats.

I live in a Democrat stronghold. I live in a city that has been decaying for decades, under corrupt leadership, and immense poverty. I live in a city that used to be a really, really nice place to live. Sadly, blacks have been used as a scapegoat by MANY of the Democrats who live in this area. I blame the Democrats for holding this position, because all the people who have expressed that position to me are Democrats. I've not met a single Republican who ever shared that sentiment. Ever.

The position held by the Democrats where I live is this: "Everything was perfect before the blacks moved in; but after they moved in, property values plummeted, crime increased exponentially, and all the decent people had to move out of the city. Since the whites lest, the city has done nothing but rot and waste potential ever since."

I know that is disgusting. I agree. But that sentiment hasn't been coming from the Right, at least not where I live.

I live in a union stronghold. The unions have basically run every business out of town. No business would want to come to where I live because the union mentality is so pervasive. Along with the unions this area has a long sad tradition of organized crime. Between the union crooks and the mob, no big corporation would even consider wanting to do business where I live. Because jobs are scarce where I live, MOST intelligent, well educated, ambitious youth move as far away from this city as possible.

Local politicians have a history of being owned by the mob and the union interests. The leadership in this area have been corrupt for generations. In recent years, the federal government has been cracking down on the organized crime and political crooks. Some of those who were sent to jail said matter-of-factly, "It's just the way things are done around here."

Amazingly, the Democrats in this area don't see the organized crime and the corrupt unions as the problem with this area. Where I live, Democrats know who is really to blame.

This kind of thinking is disgusting. I do not hold those beliefs at all. Not at all. It just isn't how I was brought up. BUT, I do know that racism does still exist. The conservatives and Republicans in this area tend NOT to hold those sorts of beliefs.

A well-educated, capable black has a better chance of being elected as a Republican in this town than as a Democrat. That is the sad reality of race-politics in many cities in America.

On his skin color alone, I do not believe Obama can win. I'm not racist for thinking this, I am intellectually honest. It is because I truly believe that Democrats, as a whole, do not want to see a black President: that is why I think Obama cannot win.

I do think that a Colin Powell type figure COULD win. (With regards to Mr. Powell, I think his work for Bush in the lead up to the war has damaged his image politically to the point that he probably could not win in '08, but he is a great example of the type of candidate that the Republicans could put forward and who actually could win). I also think the first black President will be a Republican, which would be fitting for the party of Lincoln.

It will happen, it is just a matter of time, but it is not going to happen in '08.

Now, one could easily argue that the race issue (even if I am right) is not the only reason that Obama will not win in '08.

He is too young. He is too politically inexperienced. He has converted his religion from Islam - not the best fact to have on one's resume when running for the position of commander in chief during a war against radical Islam. His political views are too uncertain - I know that conservatives are putting out the image that he is as far left as Clinton, Pelosi, et al; however, I'm not so sure that this is the case.

All these things said, my mother thinks he would be a good president. (And my mother is a good judge of character). I don't know enough about Obama to say whether he would make a good president, but I know enough about America to say that he won't win the Democratic nod, let alone the White House.

(It is probably important to note that I did not focus on Obama much at all. I didn't give much in the way of reasons not to vote for him. I simply stated why he won't win and why)

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